Cold War II or WW III?

 As appeared in the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel blogs.

 

 A new axis of evil has arisen that is actively threatening Western civilization. It is ominous, imminent, active, serious, and deadly. This enemy of Western Civilization is comprised of Russia (and its proxy, the Wagner Group), China, Iran (and its proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza), North Korea, and Afghanistan.

Yet, there has been little to no confrontation to stop their growing force and belligerence. There was no U.S. ‘punishment’ meted out after a Chinese spy balloon floated over the USA. No stopping Iran’s imminent nuclear weapons development. No counterattack to Iran’s proxy’s attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Jordan (that have injured and killed U.S. citizens). And no united counterattack or little political support to acts of war against Israel. There have been no counterattacks on Yemen by NATO (only some defensive action by an American-led coalition), whose purpose is to protect Europe. All the while, Houthis have been attacking and succeeding in blocking European shipping, making passage through the Red Sea a treacherous journey. And there has been a very weak response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea and Ukraine, with weapons donated, but in limited quantities, with holds on how and where they should be used.

This can be called Cold War II. If not shut down decisively and strongly, by the Western powers it might lead to World War III.

The original Cold War was the time following World War II, from about 1947 to 1991, consisted of immense tension between the United States (and its allies), against the Soviet Union (and its satellite states). It became known as “The Cold War” because this on-going conflict involved political, military, and ideological rivalry but did not result in direct warfare between the two superpowers. There were indirect military conflicts such as the Korean War, Vietnam War, and many Arab-Israeli wars and conflicts, each side being supported by the other superpower.

That first Cold War was won only through the strength of confrontation exhibited by the U.S. and allies against the Soviet bloc. The Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 was one example where Russia was discovered to be installing missile sites in Cuba – just 90 miles off the coast of the United States. In response, President John F. Kennedy responded by imposing a naval blockade around Cuba to prevent further Soviet shipments of missiles. The U.S. did not a call for “de-escalation” but put forth a strong military backed confrontation as a show of deterrence. Russia removed its missiles.

In the Middle East, during this same Cold War period, Russia sought expansion by militarily supporting Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and others (just think of the Israel-Arab wars of 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982). To counter this Russian aid, the U.S. and its allies poured military and economic support into Israel. There were no calls for restraint or threats to hold up shipments on Israel.

As the nuclear arms race continued between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R, there was an understood deterrent called MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). If the U.S. detected a Soviet launch, they would be able to launch a counter strike, before any missiles reached America, and vice-versa. The end result is that both countries would be destroyed. In 1991, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) effectively ended the nuclear arms race.

Unfortunately, now the burden rests disproportionately on the United States. As the winner of World War II and the Cold War, they have become the superpower ‘policeman’ of the world. Unfortunately, evil only fears and responds to strength. And that strength has not been shown. As we all know, power abhors a vacuum. Therefore, we are in the throes of Cold War II.

If this Cold War II continues along the way it has been, weakly, without this axis of evil being forcefully stopped, it will most likely turn into WW III.  One prescient reason we could be on the cusp of WW III, is that Islam does not have the same deterrent of MAD, as mentioned before. The Hamas leader Ismail Haniye has repeatedly said "We love death like our enemies love life! We love Martyrdom…” This Islamic concept is taken to the point that if innocent Muslims are killed while terrorists attack, it is acceptable to them because then the victims become martyrs themselves.

Calls for “de-escalation” means back to the status quo (terrorist organizations continuing to commit crimes against humanity with impunity), leaving the axis of evil emboldened to wreak more havoc, along with death and destruction on the Middle East, Ukraine, and elsewhere.

If we fear “escalation” the threats will not be solved. Unfortunately, forces of evil must be met with stronger messages of deterrence for us to live in peace and hold on to our society’s free way of life. Words of warning, such as “don’t,” haven’t worked because they believe we won’t back that up with actions of deterrence. Our enemies welcome the escalation. Let’s give it to them, before it’s too late. If we don’t, they will give us WW III.